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October 15 2018

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October 15 2018 | The Journal of Commerce 45 www.joc.com Air Cargo: Third-Quarter Review and Peak-Season Outlook Cover Story Special Report to the report. Meanwhile, trade tensions signal a deeper malaise in the way the global economy works. But even with the trade disputes, DHL's view on trade remains positive. "Despite rising political tensions among global players over trade-related issues, the DHL when uncertainty surrounding Trump administration tari s drove importers to get goods in before the latest round of tar- i s kicked in. Responding to high bunker prices and tari concerns, container lines — individually and with their vessel-shar- ing alliance partners — cut capacity in June, with 6 percent removed from routes to the West Coast and 1.3 percent to the East Coast. Shippers are anxious to avoid a repeat of the 2017 peak-season capacity crunch, when cargo faced lengthy delays getting out of China and through Asia's freight hub airports. The rising volume continued well into 2018 and beyond the Chinese New Year peak. Reports of cargo stuck on the tarmac in China for weeks and shippers paying up to $12 per kilogram prompted shippers to race to lock in air cargo capacity early. But as with container shipping, there are signs of slowing volume in the air car- go trade. Air freight measured in freight metric ton kilometers recorded its slowest growth in more than two years in July at just 2.8 percent, according to the Interna- tional Air Transport Association (IATA). "This largely refl ects the fact that the inventory restocking cycle, which helped air freight growth to outperform that of wider global trade in 2016-2017, has now run its course," IATA said in a statement. "More generally, against a backdrop of ris- ing trade protectionism measures, wider momentum in world trade also looks to be weakening." JOC email: greg.knowler@ihsmarkit.com twitter: @greg_knowler Global Trade Barometer indicates solid pos- itive growth for world trade in the coming three months," said Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding. JOC email: greg.knowler@ihsmarkit.com twitter: @greg_knowler "While measures of consumer con- fi dence remain close to multiyear high levels, the latest monthly outcomes have continued to suggest that the strong upturn seen in consumer confi dence has peaked," IATA said. A third report released recently, this one by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, further highlighted the fragile nature of global trade. According to the UN body, the global economy remains on shaky ground a decade after the 2008 global fi nancial crisis. Although the global economy has picked up since early 2017, growth remains spasmodic, with many countries operating below their potential, according

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