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JOC Guide to Trucking, August 2019

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4 The Journal of Commerce | August 2019 Editorial August 2019 2019JOC Guide to Trucking William B. Cassidy Executive Editor, The Journal of Commerce and JOC Events: Chris Brooks 609 649 2181, Executive Editor, The Journal of Commerce and Mark Szakonyi 202 872 1234, Managing Editor: Benjamin Meyer 916 716 6272, Associate Managing Editor: Kevin Saville, 212 488 4282, Senior Editors: William B. Cassidy Trucking and Domestic Transportation 202 872 1228, Bill Mongelluzzo West Coast 562 428 5999, Hugh Morley Northeast, Mexico 646 679 3475, Eric Johnson Technology 213 444 9326, Janet Nodar Breakbulk and Heavy Li 251 473 2742, Greg Knowler Europe +44 7976798770, Turloch Mooney Global Ports +852 9011 9109, Associate Editor: Ari Ashe Southeast Ports, Intermodal Rail 202 548 7895, Data Analyst: Marcin Lejk +44 587416270, Shipper Engagement Manager: Dustin Braden 646 679 3450, Senior Content Editor: Alessandra Gregory Barrett, 860 248 5238 Senior Designer: Sue Abt, 862 371 3534, Designer: Bryan Boyd, 908 910 7849, Publisher: Tony Stein, 770 295 8809, Sales: Cindy Cronin, Senior Strategic Account Manager Southeast, Gulf, Canada sales, 954 260 6061 Jean Gibbons, Senior Sales Executive West Coast, Midwest sales, 706 469 7160 John Knowles, Senior Sales Executive Europe sales, +44 7779974677 Allyson Marek, Senior Sales Executive Northeast sales, 862 754 8012 Alex Remstein, Associate Sales Specialist Reprints/Classifieds/Copyrights, 646 679 3418 Mehdi Smaili, Senior Sales Executive, Asia sales, +44 7581406491 For Magazine Subscription Customer Service: 450 West 33rd St., 5th Floor, New York, N.Y. 10001 800 952 3839 Vice President, Maritime & Trade, IHS Markit, Peter Tirschwell Executive Director, Media & Events, Maritime & Trade, IHS Markit, Amy Middlebrook Manager, Production, Carmen Verenna Product Manager, JOC, Jesse Case ©2019 The Journal of Commerce — All Rights Reserved For more information, visit our website, revolution in communications tech- nology, led by the mobile smarphone; and broad diversifi cation within the trucking industry among LTL and truckload carriers. In the next 10 years, digitization, e-commerce, and shifting demograph- ics will drive changes in the transpor- tation business that I believe will rival those seen in the 1980s. Technology is no longer a competitive advantage, but a competitive necessity for trucking operators and their shipper customers. In the short term, technology will make it easier than ever for shippers to fi nd truck capacity, even when eco- nomic cycles tighten that capacity. It also will make it easier for truckers to capitalize on those cycles with better understanding and control over costs and pricing. In the longer term, I believe the dominance of the long-haul, go-any- where truckload carrier will diminish further in the 2020s, as e-commerce shortens distribution networks and a wave of retiring truck drivers now in their 40s and 50s shrinks long-haul trucking's labor pool. Forward-thinking carriers already are moving away from the one-way transactional model, putting more resources and capacity into higher- value services such as dedicated trucking. Long-haul, one-way truck- load may become more of a premium service as capacity exits. It's extremely di cult to recog- nize change in the midst of change, partly because of our own precon- ceptions about how things are and therefore likely will be. My favorite example of this is a column written in the 1920s that dubbed dirigibles the future of long-distance air cargo. Although it's impossible to pre- dict exactly which new and emerging technologies will have the greatest impact on trucking and freight transportation in general — be it artifi cial intelligence or autonomous vehicles — the rapid acceleration of technological advancement suggests that major disruption is just around the bend. IN FIVE SHORT months, a new decade begins, the fi fth decade in which I have made my living writing about the trucking business. I'm dating myself with a purpose here: to under- score the pace of change in trucking and transportation and how and why it's accelerating. I've come to believe the next 10 years will bring on changes — "disrup- tion," as this generation calls it — in the transportation business the likes of which we haven't seen since the Motor Carrier Act of 1980, which sharply severed the industry's links to the fi rst "Golden Era" of trucking that lasted from the 1930s through the 1970s. My reporting career began in 1984, when trucking was almost a purely manual endeavor. No elec- tronic engines, no commercial driv- er's license, and few computers. The irregular-route truckload sector was just gaining speed as the shackles of economic regulation fell away. Who remembers "The Rule of Eight," the Interstate Commerce Com- mission regulation that said no truck- ing company with contract authority could have more than eight contract customers? Because the same tari prices applied to everyone, "predatory pricing" referred to the practice of illegally lowering rates. In the 1980s, trucking was much smaller than it is today. The number of licensed carriers grew rapidly post-deregulation. At the same time, many longstanding less-than-truck- load (LTL) carriers failed, unable to adapt to new market dynamics in an unregulated industry. The 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s brought with them the rise of the third-party logistics provider; the Driving toward disruption The dominance of the long-haul, go-anywhere truckload carrier will diminish further in the 2020s.

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