Issue link: https://jocdigital.uberflip.com/i/334529
62 THE JOURNAL OF COMMERCE www.joc.com MAY 26.2014 TOP 100 IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS By William B. Cassidy Truckload Capacity Loosens Slightly Truckload Capacity Loosens Slightly Truckload Capacity THE JOC TRUCKLOAD Capacity Index rose slightly in the fi rst quarter of 2014 but stayed close to a record low, foreshadowing upward pressure on truckload pricing in the second quarter. The index rose to 81 in the fi rst quar- ter from a fourth quarter reading of 79.8 and 1.3 points above its historic low of 79.7 a year ago. Available truck capacity at large truck- load carriers is about 19 percent below its pre-recession peak in the fourth quarter of 2006, according to the index, which is based on tractor counts. The index dropped 3.2 points in 2007, 6.4 points in 2008 and 6.5 points in 2009, and has ranged from 83.9 to 79.7 since the fi rst quarter of 2010 — almost the entire economic recovery. That suggests large truckload car- riers are maintaining current capacity levels mostly by replacing older trucks and adding new trucks incrementally as business allows. The fi rst quarter increase refl ected the sequential quarterly addition of a small number of tractors by all but one of the large truckload companies in the carrier group tracked by the index. The index ticked up despite severe truck equipment and driver shortages in the fi rst quarter caused by successive winter storms that disrupted supply chains and trucking networks. In fact, the tractors may have been added because of those disruptions, and some of the tractors may have been parked, delayed or otherwise affected by the quarter's winter storms. Those storms, coupled with higher demand, drove up truckload spot rates in the fi rst quarter, as shippers struggled to fi nd trucks. Contract rates are expected to rise 4 to 6 percent. Year-over-year, the carriers included in the index increased their combined tractor count by 1.6 percent, though more than half $2,600 $2,800 $3,000 $3,200 $3,400 1Q 2014 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2013 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2012 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2011 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2010 74 78 82 86 90 94 1Q 2014 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2013 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2012 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2011 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2010 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2009 4Q 3Q -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 1Q 2014 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2013 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2012 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2011 Source: JOC analysis, company reports TRUCKLOAD: JOC AVERAGE REVENUE PER TRACTOR ■ Average revenue per tractor per week for truckload carrier group tracked by the JOC. $2,600 $2,800 $3,000 $3,200 $3,400 1Q 2014 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2013 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2012 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2011 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2010 74 78 82 86 90 94 1Q 2014 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2013 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2012 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2011 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2010 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2009 4Q 3Q -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 1Q 2014 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2013 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2012 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2011 Source: JOC analysis, company reports JOC TRUCKLOAD CAPACITY INDEX ■ The quarterly index tracks truckload capacity measured in actual tractor counts at a group of large publicly owned truckload carriers with $10 billion in combined annual revenue. The base value of the index (100) is the tractor count in the fourth quarter of 2006. The index has been adjusted in recent quarters to account for the effect of acquisitions. A slight fi rst quarter uptick isn't likely to be enough to ease pressure on rates