April 30 2018
|
The Journal of Commerce 33 www.joc.com
Government
to its tariffs on steel and aluminum
that greatly reduced their overall
impact, but in terms of the contain-
er trade, they will have little effect,
reducing the exposure of 1.2 percent
of total US imports by 0.3 percent-
age points.
The share of imports from China
that the United States is targeting was
6.6 percent or 706,872 TEU of the US
import trade with China in 2017, and
THE US TARIFFS on $50 billion of
imports from China and Chinese re-
taliation threaten roughly 887,000
TEU, or 6.6 percent of the total US
container trade with China and
2.5 percent of total US container
volume. With both sides pledging
to negotiate, the ultimate impact of
the threatened tariffs is unclear.
The Trump administration on
March 22 issued a number of waivers
6.6 percent or 180,098 TEU of the US
export trade with China, according to
an analysis of data from PIERS, a sister
product of The Journal of Commerce
within IHS Markit. Imports from China
make up 3.1 percent of the total US im-
port trade, with exports accounting for
1.4 percent of the total US export trade.
The 1,300 items on which the
United States is seeking to levy a
25 percent tariff could shrink or grow
depending on feedback during a public
comment period that runs until May
11 and a hearing on the matter May 15
at the US International Trade Com-
mission. China's retaliatory tariffs
would also be pegged at 25 percent.
Neither country has given a
deadline for the tariffs, but the situa-
tion remains dynamic and fluid.
The consultancy Drewry said
gauging the impact of a potential
trade war on container shipping was
difficult, noting that much of the
high-tech goods targeted by US tariffs
moves via air transport rather than
ocean. Rising tensions, however, are
clouding the air freight outlook for
2018, despite a solid start to the year
for volume and cargo yield.
The rate of growth in targeted
import commodities was 6.2 percent
year over year in 2017, faster than
the 5.8 percent increase in total US
imports from China in 2017. The
US exports of commodities China is
targeting fell 30.3 percent in 2017,
as shippers of brewing waste steered
clear of the country's ongoing crack-
down on waste imports.
However, the top three targeted
commodities that the United States
exports to China surged in 2017, with
No. 1 cotton up 93.1 percent to 35,960
TEU, No. 2 polysulfides up 18.2 percent
to 32,563 TEU, and No. 3 soybeans up
86.6 percent to 22,285 TEU.
While US exporters can find new
markets, so much soy is shipped to
China that any tariffs or disruption to
the trade could be the difference be-
tween profit and loss for soy farmers,
Mike Steenhoek, executive director of
the Soy Transportation Coalition told
The Journal of Commerce.
China is the top destination
for US soy, with exports valued at
$14 billion, compared with $1.5 billion
to No. 2 Mexico, Steenhoek said. While
acknowledging that China's demand
is so great that it will most likely have
no choice but to continue to purchase
Battle cries
Threatened US, China tariffs, though in flux,
have exporters and consumers on edge
By Dustin Braden
20%
18%
12%
50%
Cotton, not carded or combed
Polysulfides, polysulfones, and
other NESOI, primary form
Soybeans, whether or not
broken
Others
Top 3 targeted US exports make up half of total export impact
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Share in 2017 of US exports China is targeting with tariffs
Notes: NESOI = Not elsewhere specified or indicated
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